A Ukrainian offensive into Russia itself has caught the Kremlin off guard. The operational objective is Kursk, though Ukraine has not announced any strategic goals.
Ukraine has committed two brigades to the offensive. It appears that they have been held back from the front to train for this, and have benefited from some of Ukraine’s top military equipment provided by NATO. The NY Times says:
Since its surprise incursion into Russia more than a week ago, Ukraine has steadily gained ground, saying it advanced even deeper into Russian territory on Wednesday. It says it has captured hundreds of soldiers, as Russia has evacuated more than 130,000 people from nearby communities and declared a new state of emergency in one region.
And now Moscow has begun withdrawing some troops from Ukraine in an effort to repel Kyiv’s offensive into western Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an indication that the surprise attack is forcing Moscow to change its battle plans in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s attack is a way to open a new front, hopefully draw forces away from the current offensive in the South. Just as Russia’s attack on Kiev though, it is most likely a feint and not intended to march all the way to Moscow. Holding Russian land might also prevent Russia from claiming Ukrainian land it holds without giving up some of its own. Politico continues:
Speaking Monday at a meeting with top security and defense officials, Putin said the attack that began Aug. 6 appeared to reflect Kyiv’s attempt to achieve a better negotiating position in possible future talks to end the war. He insisted Moscow’s army would prevail.
Putin said Ukraine may have hoped the attack would cause public unrest in Russia, but that it has failed to do so, and he claimed the number of volunteers to join the Russian military has increased because of the assault. He said Russian forces will carry on with their offensive in eastern Ukraine regardless.
The Ukrainian offensive will most likely stall at some point, as Russia marshals more resources. Holding ground will be difficult, and could result in Ukraine being pushed back to its borders and into its own territory. Still, it is likely Ukraine’s best shot at changing paradigms in the war.
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