According to people familiar with the study, U.S. intelligence services reportedly came to the conclusion in the last days of the Biden administration that Israel is now considering carrying out large-scale attacks on Iranian nuclear sites this year in an effort to exploit Iran’s newfound vulnerability.
Around the beginning of the new year, as the Biden administration came to an end, the conclusion was part of an analytical evaluation.
After Iran’s capabilities deteriorated during the previous year, the research emphasized the dangers of more high-stakes military action in the Middle East.
According to two people familiar with the intelligence, the intelligence analysis came to the conclusion that Israel would pressure the Trump administration to support the strikes because it believed he was more likely to join an attack than former President Joe Biden and was afraid the window for stopping Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon was closing.
According to one of the U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence, the U.S. intelligence community generated a second report that was provided in the early days of President Trump’s administration and reiterated that Israel is contemplating such strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
Given their complexity, an Israeli attack on Iran’s strongly guarded nuclear sites would probably require U.S. military assistance and munitions, according to U.S. military officials.
Requests for reaction from Israel’s military and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office were not answered. Israeli leaders have indicated time and again that there is a chance to take more forceful action against Iran.
Iran had previously pledged to retaliate if its nuclear installations were attacked, but Israel’s strikes on its conventional military sites last year and the severe losses sustained by its regional proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have severely undermined Tehran.
Some members of Trump’s team pondered the feasibility of Israel carrying out preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the presidential transition, including enlisting American forces to accompany Israeli aircraft in a bombing campaign.
Trump has stated that he favors a negotiated resolution in his new role as president.
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