Armenia and Azerbaijan are squaring off in the Artsakh region. Reports of Azerbaijan troop movements has Armenian civilians in panic, fearing another ethnic cleansing that would force them to Armenia proper.
Artsakh is legally part of Azerbaijan, but is wholly Armenian ethnically. The two countries fought a war in 2020, where Armenia lost and Russia moved in with peace keepers. The Moscow Times reports:
Azerbaijan on Tuesday launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region and demanded the total withdrawal of Armenian forces from the disputed mountainous territory as a precondition for peace.
Fears of a fresh war have been growing in recent months, with Armenia accusing Azerbaijan of a troop build-up and decrying a blockade of its only land link to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia’s focus on Ukraine has left its nominal ally Armenia without many friends in the region. Armenia has turned to America for protection, but Turkey’s key role in NATO has made American intervention in the region difficult.Politico says:
In 2020, Russia negotiated a ceasefire agreement, monitored by Russian peacekeepers, between the two South Caucasus countries after Azerbaijan recaptured areas in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving thousands dead.
But in recent months, the once-friendly relationship between Armenia and Russia has deteriorated sharply as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly questioned Moscow’s lack of attention during its invasion of Ukraine. In a further sign of Armenia’s lack of confidence in Moscow, the country hosted a joint military drill in September with the United States.
Russia’s credibility is on the line, as other states either border grievances could attack its allies. Georgia could aim to retake its two breakaway provinces, and Moldova its secessionist province Transdniestria.
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