On Thursday, Syrian rebels were reportedly on the brink of capturing the strategic city of Hama, thereby delivering a severe blow to President Bashar al-Assad and his allies Russia and Iran.
This development also increased the stakes for an insurgency that currently controls a vast expanse of territory.
The government would retain control of only one significant city, Homs, on the road from rebel-held northern Syria to Damascus, the capital, if Hama were to be captured.
The revolutionaries have declared their intention to seize Homs, which could potentially isolate Assad from his ancestral homeland near the country’s coast and threaten his authority.
Homs, a metropolis with a population of approximately 800,000, is situated at a critical intersection between Damascus, the Mediterranean Sea, and the border with Lebanon.
On Thursday, there was intense combat in the countryside surrounding Hama between rebels and forces and aircraft loyal to Assad, who were supported by Russian air power.
However, the rebels claimed that they had penetrated Hama, as the Syrian government had announced that it would withdraw military personnel from the city.
The rapid advance of the rebels has left their supply lines vulnerable and raised questions about their ability to effectively hold and govern territory, including Aleppo, the second-largest city in the country.
Therefore, the seizure of Hama would also present a dilemma for them.
The rebel offensive threatens Assad’s control over the country’s primary population centers in western Syria and places nonstate groups, such as the opposition and U.S.-backed militias, in control of extensive swaths of territory.
Russia and Iran were frantically seeking assistance for Assad. The opposition-held territory was the target of Russian aircraft strikes, and Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Damascus to express his support for the government’s efforts to combat the insurgents.
However, Russia and Iran are currently preoccupied with other conflicts—Moscow in Ukraine and Tehran with the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon with Israel.
The deployment of military assets to Syria could necessitate that both nations make challenging decisions regarding their respective theaters of operations.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that has been supported by Iran and has also fought on Assad’s side against the rebels, has been severely impacted by months of war with Israel.
Since a 2011 insurrection devolved into a civil war, Assad has regained control over a significant portion of the country.
However, various rebel groups, each with its own ideological, sectarian, and ethnic affiliations, have maintained control over certain regions, particularly in the war-torn north.
Syria became a venue for competition among a variety of external powers, such as the United States, Israel, and Turkey, as a result of the conflict.
It is unclear what a post-Assad Syria could look like, but the preponderance of Islamists among the rebels indicates that it’s future may be bleak indeed.
[READ MORE: French Government Falls After No-Confidence Vote]
