Is This Ukraine’s Last Chance To Win?

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Russia claims that Ukraine has started its long awaited counteroffensive, NBC News reports. This is further corroborated by Ukrainian President Zelensky himself stating yesterday that Ukraine would be starting its own counteroffensive. Following Russia’s Pyrrhic victory at Bakhmut, Ukraine has been looking to score a tangible and symbolic victory.

Western military analysts have long awaited a Ukrainian counteroffensive, hopeful that the billions of dollars of arm shipments would translate to real battlefield successes. Cutting edge systems like the M1 Abrams are reportedly being outfitted to specially constituted forces who will be used as shock troops against the Russians, piercing lines to allow for follow on forces to exploit gaps.

The pressure on Ukraine for a successful counteroffensive is very serious. NATO backers expect to see dividends from the weapon shipments it has sent, and . Despite the financial support of the West for Ukraine, Russia has a few advantages. First, its population is much larger, and can therefore afford greater losses in battles. Second, it has a native arms industry that it can fully focus on the Ukrainian war, unlike Western arms manufacturers who need to outfit their own armies as well as Ukraine’s. Third, Ukraine can only play defense on its own land, never crossing the border with Russia except by using small groups Russian insurgents in deniable operations. The war can only end when Russia wants to.


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