Is Wagner Invading Poland?

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The Wagner Group, now based in Belarus, is moving closer to the Polish border, raising the threat of hybrid warfare operations according to the The Hill.

Following Prigozhin’s mutiny, most of Wagner’s recruits were told to return home or enlist directly with the Russian military. Only a core group of skilled mercenaries was kept on staff and moved to Belarus.

Wagner’s operations in Belarus have remained closely guarded, with their status as combatants uncertain. Western intelligence has noticed their deployment near the Suwalki Gap, a crucial node connecting the Baltics with the rest of NATO. Poland has already reinforced its border with militarized border patrols.

Should Wagner conduct operations in Polish territory, a victory could create a link between the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarusian territory. If a hypothetical attack was defeated by NATO forces, Russia itself could disavow the operation and avoid a broader conflict.

Wagner has continued to conduct operations in the Sahel region of Africa, propping up countries ruled by military dictators with a decidedly anti-Western agenda. The recent coup in Niger was lauded by Prigozhin himself.


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