Guyana Crisis Could Get Resolved

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F-16 pilot from the 169th Fighter Wing, South Carolina Air National Guard flies a training mission in the KIWI MOA airspace over the cost of North Carolina Cost . (U.S. Air Force photo SMSgt Thomas Meneguin)

Guyana and Venezuela are set to meet in a bilateral meeting. This follows a Venezuelan announcement that it would annex the Western region of Guyana.

Maduro’s decision to annex followed the recent discovery of natural gas reserves within Guyana’s region. Venezuela has one of the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world, which explains why its neighbor would also have some.Reuters says:

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro will meet with Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali on Thursday amid a territorial dispute between the two countries, according to a letter from the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

The announcement of the bilateral meeting came after Maduro spoke with Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, who also serves as president pro tempore of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Saturday.

Current Venezuela military preparedness is low, indicating that war is not likely. However, Western intelligence was wrong when Russia launched its attack on Ukraine despite its imperfect preparation. The Miami Herald continues:

Multiple U.S. officials tell McClatchy and the Miami Herald they have yet to see the sort of activity along the border they would expect if Maduro intended to launch an imminent, full-scale invasion of the Essequibo, a region roughly the size of Florida.

But even if Maduro planned to do so, taking over and occupying such a vast jungle terrain would be a challenge for a Venezuelan military that, while strong on paper, has been gutted of recruits over poor pay and meager food rations.

A war would be very risky for Venezuela, as US intervention would decimate its military. Without a goal of regime change, US air and naval forces could force Venezuela to back down. A successful Venezuelan aggression would greatly harm American credibility.

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