Saudi Arabia is gearing up for a new military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, according to regional and Western officials.
Six sources familiar with the preparations said the operation is set to launch in the coming weeks. The offensive will be led by Yemeni ground forces under Riyadh’s oversight, backed by Saudi air power. According to anonymous sources, foreign allies are not expected to take part directly in combat. However, the United States is already providing intelligence to help Riyadh, and several European and regional nations are offering mostly defensive military support to the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia first entered Yemen’s civil war in 2015, leading an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government after Houthi fighters drove it out of the capital, Sanaa. A truce reached between the two sides in 2022 largely held until this year, when Houthi drone and missile strikes hit Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure as fallout from the Iran war spread.
According to Western diplomats as well as Gulf and Yemeni officials, a key goal of the previously unreported campaign is to roll back recent Houthi territorial gains. Last month, the Houthis pushed down the coast and seized the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Officials said two strategies are under consideration. One is a targeted offensive centered on the Bab el-Mandeb area. The other is a broader campaign featuring coordinated attacks across the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. Depending on its scale, the offensive could involve more than 100,000 Yemeni troops, the officials said.
Bab el-Mandeb serves as the southern exit of the Red Sea, a critical shipping route connecting the Mediterranean and Asia. Its importance has grown this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.
The Western diplomats and Gulf official said Riyadh has determined it cannot enter new peace talks with the Houthis while the militants control Bab el-Mandeb, which gives them considerable global leverage.
The six sources could not provide an exact launch date. Their estimates ranged from within a week to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthis and the U.S. military did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expects the offensive to be narrowly focused and far more limited than the 2015 Saudi-led operation that aimed to defeat the militants.
“As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” Ratney said. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”
Since Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years, the Houthis have become Iran’s most powerful ally in the Middle East.
A Saudi-led offensive would open a new front in a region gripped by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that followed.
