Two container ships have gone down near the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by missiles, as Iran carries out its sharpest escalation of attacks on commercial shipping since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began.
The surge in strikes suggests Tehran is trying to fully shut down the strategic waterway, a deliberate move aimed at undercutting President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring down fuel prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The Trump administration has pointed to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries as a driver of higher fuel prices.
On Wednesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least five incidents in the previous 48 hours, including drone strikes, targeting tankers and other commercial vessels around Hormuz.
“There is a tempo increase in strikes, which looks deliberate,” one maritime security source said.
The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank Wednesday after being attacked the day before. Hours later, the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao also went down near the strait. That vessel had been hit by a projectile on Sept. 23, according to International Maritime Organization data.
Tehran is telling a different story. In an apparent reference to the GFS Pride, Iran claimed a cargo ship sank after hitting a naval mine while using an unauthorized passage through the strait.
Iranian state television quoted a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) saying the ship had been on an “illegal and dangerous route” when it struck the mine. The broadcast showed the unidentified vessel tilted in the water and spewing thick smoke, and said it was carrying 2,500 containers.
But the UKMTO indicated both ships were hit by unidentified projectiles, raising questions about Tehran’s account.
Iran has repeatedly warned vessels against transiting the strait without its approval. The U.S. military has been guiding ships through the waterway along a route closer to Oman’s coast.
Ships in the region have reported an intense wave of attacks in recent days, with six vessels targeted Sunday alone, according to UKMTO monitoring. A Financial Times analysis found 24 ships were hit in the two weeks leading up to Oct. 11, including three refined energy product tankers and two crude oil tankers.
The stepped-up attacks appear to have caused a dramatic drop-off in oil shipments through the strait, as Tehran seems determined to show it can strike ships before the midterms that will decide control of Congress.
U.S. fuel prices have surged nearly 70% since Trump launched the war on Iran, and Republicans are bracing for punishment at the polls.
According to two Iranian officials, Iran recently began using new tactics against ships it considers in violation of its restrictions, changing both the type and pace of attacks, with one goal being to influence the U.S. vote.
“The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,” one of the officials told Reuters.
The officials said the decision was made at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and fully coordinated across the country’s ruling system.
A U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed one significant shift in Tehran’s tactics. After the U.S. destroyed much of Iran’s radar capabilities, the IRGC began using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including American naval vessels.
Last week, in a previously unreported incident, the U.S. military determined Iranian spotters were operating from a dhow and calling in targets to the IRGC, the official said. U.S. forces confronted the vessel, ordered its occupants to abandon ship and then destroyed it. There were no casualties, the official said.
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